Iran strikes risk more voter frustration on the economy with rising gas prices

Barely a week after President Donald Trump hailed falling gas prices as one of his economic triumphs, his actions are sending the cost per gallon back up Iran TensionsIran strikes risk more voter frustration on the economy with rising gas pricesDemocrats are already pointing to prices at the pump in hitting the administration for its decision to strike Iran, while Republicans say they hope the spike will be short-lived. Add NBC News to GoogleGas prices spike as war in Iran hits fourth day02:02Get more newsLiveonShareAdd NBC News to GoogleMarch 4, 2026, 5:24 AM ESTBy Jonathan AllenListen to this article with a free account00:0000:00Barely a week after President Donald Trump hailed falling gas prices as one of his economic triumphs, his actions are sending the cost per gallon back up.The war Trump launched with strikes on Iran has spread across the Middle East, where more than a quarter of the world’s oil is produced. Gas prices spiked almost immediately, undercutting a key data point in Trump's argument to skeptical Americans that the economy is soaring."Gasoline, which reached a peak of over $6 a gallon in some states under my predecessor — it was, quite honestly, a disaster — is now below $2.30 a gallon in most states, and in some places, $1.99 a gallon," Trump said in his State of the Union address. Though his numbers were rosier than the real figures, gas prices looked to be a strong talking point for Republicans heading into November's midterm elections.Energy Secretary Chris Wright pumped gas to underscore the message that the administration was making fuel cheaper for Americans.Energy Secretary Chris Wright pumps gas in Corpus Christi, Texas, on Friday.Sheila Dang / ReutersBut that was last week.In the week since the State of the Union address, the average price of a gallon of gas in America rose 16 cents to nearly $3.11, according to AAA. It’s impossible to know how much of that is attributable to war in the Middle East, but many experts believe there is a strong correlation. Prices do tend to rise anyway from lows in February into the peak summer season.Asked about the issue Tuesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the administration expected prices might go up. Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks to reporters about the U.S. military action in Iran in Washington on Tuesday.Jim Watson / AFP - Getty Images"We knew that going in would be a factor," he said.Trump said he believes the increase would be a short-term problem. However, administration officials have given a range of projections for how long the hostilities will last, and it would be hard for the U.S. to stop fighting if Iran continues to strike American assets and allies. "As soon as this ends, those prices are going to drop, I believe, lower than even before," Trump said Tuesday at the White House.Republican strategists hope he is right. Their party is trying to hold on to majorities in the House and the Senate at a time when Trump's approval ratings remain far underwater. In particular, voters have said in poll after poll that they are dissatisfied with the state of Trump's economy broadly and the prices of staple goods specifically.The duration could be meaningful for GOP candidates."A small, short spike — even if it happens — won't be an issue," said Matt Gorman, a veteran Republican political operative.A second GOP operative who is working on midterm campaigns said the price increase will probably be temporary. But if it is not, he said, the effects could be devastating."If it sustains at all, it's really bad," said the second operative, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid angering the White House. "Grocery prices are still high. Housing prices are still high. Gas is lower than it was. If that changes, and obviously high fuel prices increase the price of goods, where does that end?"Despite the political risk of gas prices' rising because of the war, some Republicans credit Trump for taking action against Iran. "Trump did what was in the best interest of America despite the political headwinds higher oil prices will create," said Dan Eberhart, a Republican donor who owns an oilfield services company called Canary.Democratic critics of the Iran war have said surging gas prices are just one of the reasons they are concerned about the strikes. Many of them have said neither the conflict nor the byproduct of a gas-pump squeeze matches the "America First" slogan Trump has promoted as his brand for more than a decade.Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., who is widely viewed as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, excoriated Trump in an op-ed column published Tuesday. "This country does not want to see more dead Americans. Americans don’t want higher gas prices, which will spike at the pump because of this stupid conflict," he wrote. "They don’t want us to waste tens of billions of dollars on this war, all while millions of Americans lose their healthcare. They don’t want to throw the Middle East into more chaos and unpredictable violence while well-connected Pentagon contractors enrich themselves." Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., told NBC News on Tuesday: "The Republican base doesn’t wa