Iran-U.S. war chokes key shipping lane and threatens global cargo industry

The war in Iran is choking off a key shipping route in the global supply chain, potentially leading to massive delays in the flow of goods to American consumers Iran TensionsIran-U.S. war chokes key shipping lane and threatens global cargo industryShipping and logistics companies have restricted or halted bookings through the region, with oil prices already on the rise. Disruptions could snarl trade around the world.Birds fly near a boat in the Strait of Hormuz amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, as seen from Musandam, Oman, Monday.Amr Alfiky / ReutersShareAdd NBC News to GoogleMarch 2, 2026, 5:27 PM ESTBy Allie Canal and Emily LorschListen to this article with a free account00:0000:00The war in Iran is choking off a key shipping route in the global supply chain, potentially leading to massive delays in the flow of goods to American consumers.The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that sits along the southern coast of Iran, gives passage to one-fifth of the world’s oil supply and is also a key route for other types of commodities like aluminum, sugar and fertilizer. According to Iranian state media, a senior commander for Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said the strait is closed and that it would set any ship trying to pass through on fire. Iran technically cannot close the Strait of Hormuz, but the mere threat of retaliation has been enough to prevent ships from sailing through the waterway.Many major shipping and logistics companies have restricted or halted bookings through the region since the strikes on Iran began, including Maersk, MSC Group, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, COSCO and Emirates SkyCargo. Diverted ships will likely be forced to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, around the southernmost tip of Africa. Experts say that will trigger weeks of delays and contribute to severe port congestion and the collapse of modern “just-in-time” inventory systems, a lean strategy in which companies receive the exact amount of raw materials they need, exactly when they need it. “If major carriers restrict bookings and vessels reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, you’re adding weeks to global shipping schedules,” Mahmoud Abuwasel, managing partner at Wasel & Wasel, told NBC News. “That effectively removes capacity from the system.”Abuwasel added that modern-day supply chains rely heavily on just-in-time logistics. Cargo ships are a key cog in the global economy, ferrying everything from oil and raw materials to toys and electronics around the world. More than 80% of goods are transported by sea, according to the World Bank. “When transit times stretch by weeks, that model breaks down,” Abuwasel explained. “Raw materials arrive late. Components don’t show up on schedule. Manufacturers feel it first, and consumers feel it soon after in the form of delays, tighter inventories, and rising prices.”Smoke billows following an explosion from the port of Bandar Abbas in Iran, along the strait of Hormuz, on Monday.Planet LabsIndustries like automotive manufacturing and consumer electronics could see slowdowns or production halts, according to Abuwasel, who also expects delays for pharmaceuticals, medical supplies and temperature-controlled goods the longer this conflict drags on. Historically, geopolitical shocks tend to fade quickly when it comes to economic impact. Last summer’s flare-up between the U.S. and Iran, for example, led to a brief spike in crude prices to about $80 a barrel before they quickly stabilized. The Strait of Hormuz avoided mass disruptions, despite initial fears.This time, analysts say, is different.“The scale [of Iran’s retaliation] has been a big, big surprise,” Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at research company Rystad Energy, told NBC News on Saturday in the aftermath of the U.S.-Israeli attacks.Last year, Iran’s retaliatory strikes were “limited” and “very telegraphed,” he said. This time, the scope and intensity have been broader, adding, “This is a totally different world from what the market was anticipating.”In addition to disrupting trade, it is also expected to make shipping more expensive, with insurers canceling policies and raising the price of coverage. When canceling, insurers are offering coverage at new renegotiated prices, not refusing coverage, according to brokers. Add NBC News to GoogleRubio says ‘purpose’ of U.S. operations is to ‘destroy’ Iran’s missile capabilities19:50This past weekend, the insurance broker Marsh predicted insurance prices could rise as much as 50% in the coming days. With tensions rising and at least one oil tanker already damaged, Marcus Baker, Marsh Global's head of Marine, Cargo and Logistics, said he expects the cost of insurance could potentially increase as much as 100%.“You’ve got, you know, 25 crewmen on one of these ships who are all making a decision to go up into an area where they could get bombed tomorrow. And I think that is a fundamental thing that many ship owners are now considering more than they might have done 20 or 30 years ago,” said Baker.A crew member was killed on Monday after an oil tanker was targeted by an unmanned boat in the Gulf of Oman, Oman’s Maritime Security Center sai