Kalshi customers who bet on the death of Iran’s ayatollah won’t get any of the $54 million wagered, company says

The predictions market says promotion was ‘grammatically ambiguous’ and misunderstood by customers, reiterating that it ‘does not offer markets that settle on death’ NewsWorldAmericasUS politicsKalshi customers who bet on the death of Iran’s ayatollah won’t get any of the $54 million wagered, company saysThe predictions market says promotion was ‘grammatically ambiguous’ and misunderstood by customers, reiterating that it ‘does not offer markets that settle on death’Joe Sommerlad Wednesday 04 March 2026 17:25 GMTBookmarkCommentsGo to commentsBookmark popoverRemoved from bookmarksClose popoverMoment Iranian state TV host breaks down in tears confirming Khamenei’s deathYour support helps us to tell the storyRead moreSupport NowFrom reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.Your support makes all the difference.Read moreA popular predictions market app will not pay out the $54 million some of its users believed they were owed after correctly forecasting the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to a report.Kalshi, which allows players to gamble on real-world events, offered customers favorable odds on Khamenei, 86, being “out as Supreme Leader” in response to the announcement of joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Tehran in the early hours of Saturday morning.The company promoted the trade on its homepage and app and tweeted on Saturday: “BREAKING: The odds Ali Khamenei is out as Supreme Leader have surged to 68 percent.” It continued: “Reminder: Kalshi does not offer markets that settle on death. If Ali Khamenei dies, the market will resolve based on the last traded price prior to confirmed reporting of death.”open image in galleryIran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in airstrikes on Saturday launched as part of Operation Epic Fury (Getty)Khamenei was later confirmed dead in the airstrikes and the company clarified in a follow-up post: “Please note: A prior version of this clarification was grammatically ambiguous. “As a customer service measure, Kalshi will reimburse lost value due to trades made between these clarifications.”The company’s CEO, Tarek Mansour, offered a similar explanation on X (Twitter), pointing out that “event contracts” like these are not offered “directly tied to death,” arguing that by “out,” Kalshi had been referring to the possibility of Khamenei voluntarily stepping down or agreeing to a peaceful transition of power, not his being assassinated. He said he still believed the trade was “important because leadership changes in Iran have major impact on the world order,” including on oil and commodity prices and geopolitical relations.While the company has offered to reimburse any bets, fees or losses from the trade placed prior to its clarification message, it has nevertheless attracted a firestorm of complaints on social media.open image in galleryThe strikes have devastated Iranian targets and prompted deadly retaliation from Tehran (AFP/Getty)One Israeli-American business executive in New York told The Washington Post he had placed two bets on Khamenei being removed from power on either March 1 or April 1 worth $3,460 in total and subsequently believed he had won $63,000 when the ruler’s demise was announced later that day. “I was booking my trip to Courchevel,” he told the Post. “Then they changed the rules… and everybody got screwed.”Amanda Fischer, a former chief of staff at the Securities and Exchange Commission who now works as a policy director at the financial advocacy group Better Markets, said she was not convinced by Mansour’s response and said the episode had exposed “just how problematic this business is.”“How is an 86-year-old theocratic leader supposed to lose his power other than through death?” she asked the Post. “All of the Kalshi users who placed bets on this believed they were voting on a death market, and many are very angry at how Kalshi broke the trades.”Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy has since expressed his disapproval of such trades being offered in the first place, saying they were a sign of a “dystopian world.” open image in galleryDemocratic Sen. Chris Murphy has said betting on real-world events represents ‘American commercial immorality on steroids’ (AFP/Getty)“This is American commercial immorality on steroids,” he said. “Once events that involve good and evil simply become a financial product, I don’t know