5 takeaways from the first primaries of the 2026 midterms

Voters headed to the polls Tuesday in the first primaries of the midterm election season. The latest results from Arkansas, North Carolina and Texas. Analysis 5 takeaways from the first primaries of the 2026 midterms March 4, 20264:23 AM ET Domenico Montanaro A "VOTE" sign is posted near a polling center on Tuesday in Austin, Texas. Texas held their primary elections including two hotly contested races for Democratic and Republican Senate nominations. Brandon Bell/Getty Images hide caption toggle caption Brandon Bell/Getty Images The first primaries of the 2026 midterm campaign are in the books. The results in North Carolina and Texas could have big consequences for control of Congress. Not all the results are finalized as yet, but here are some takeaways from what is known: 1. Texas Republicans head for a runoff in the Senate primary. Will Trump get involved? The three-way race between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt meant that no one was able to get above 50% of the vote. That means 12 more weeks of the Texas Senate GOP primary — until May 26. This has already been the most expensive Senate primary in history, and another $100 million could be spent on top of the nearly $100 million that was already spent on just the Republican side, mostly to buoy Cornyn. Sponsor Message Elections Only a fraction of House seats are competitive. Redistricting is driving that lower Cornyn vs. Paxton is really the old vestiges of the traditional GOP against the new MAGA pugilists. The question is whether President Trump will get involved and put his finger on the scale to pick the candidate he thinks can win. Trump avoided making an endorsement in the lead-up, saying he liked all three candidates, but with the Democratic side decided — state Rep. James Talarico defeated U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett — does Trump change his mind? He may decide that the money that would be spent among the warring Republicans in a likely GOP seat would be better spent on races in swing districts. Loading... 2. Will Democrats finally win in Texas? Texas has been Democrats' white whale, their Lucy and the football — getting close, but coming up just short. The Crockett campaign argued she would have a better shot because she could turn out new voters and fire up those who aren't enthusiastic about Democratic leadership. Politics Texas primaries could test whether Latino support for GOP is holding after 2024 gains Talarico's supporters see his approach as the more likely to win a general election in Texas because he could potentially appeal to moderates. But the reality is for Democrats to win, it's going to take a triple-bank shot for a party that hasn't had a candidate win statewide since 1994. So Democrats will need to be totally unified and fired up to have a chance at winning. And, by the way, this wasn't about moderate-versus-progressive differences on policy. This is entirely about approach and style. Both Talarico and Crockett are very progressive, and Talarico has run a campaign with a left-wing populist platform that puts billionaires at the center as antagonists. Sponsor Message 3. The North Carolina Senate seat match-up is set. Speaking of mild-mannered, the Democratic Senate nominee in North Carolina is former Gov. Roy Cooper. This is an open Senate seat because Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring. The Republican aiming to replace him is Michael Whatley, a former Trump Republican National Committee chairman. Elections Cooper, Whatley set to compete for a high-stakes North Carolina Senate seat Cooper joining the race was seen as a big get for Democrats. He's someone who's won statewide in a right-leaning state. Given that, his message was notable. He talked up affordability, went after his opponent as a "D.C. insider" and tried to separate himself from any political party. He said he would be a strong "independent" senator, who would work with Trump when he can, but "stand up to him" when the people in his state need him to. It highlights the really fine line that Cooper is going to attempt to walk, as he tries to flip a Senate seat in a state Trump won three times. Loading... 4. More signs of trouble for incumbents. The best job security in politics is usually being an incumbent. Incumbent reelection rates, after all, are sky high. In 2024, for example, 90% or more of incumbents won reelection in 43 states, according to Ballotpedia. But there are signs of trouble for them. On Tuesday, there were a variety of incumbents who had difficulty for different reasons. Not only was Cornyn forced into a runoff after getting just 42% of the vote, but Texas Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw lost by double-digits. Loading... Scandal-plagued Rep. Tony Gonzales' race in Texas is going to a runoff in a dead heat against a gun-rights influencer. Loading... Democratic Rep. Valerie Foushee is also locked in a nail-biter of a race in North Carolina. Loading... Longtime Rep. Al Green of Texas, who has been kicked out of presidential addresses to Congress the last two years for protesting the Trump administration, is also nearly tied in a newly drawn distr